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Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions

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  • Jan Fidrmuc

    ()

  • Jarko Fidrmuc

    ()

  • Shuo Huang

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates the changing nature of economic integration in China. Specifically, we consider business-cycle synchronization (correlation of demand and supply shocks) among Chinese provinces during the period 1955-2007. We find that the symmetry of supply shocks has declined after the liberalization initiated in 1978. In contrast, the correlation of demand shocks has increased during the same period. We then seek to explain these correlations by relating them to factors that proxy for interprovincial trade and vulnerability of regions to idiosyncratic shocks. Interprovincial trade and similarity in factor endowments tend to make shocks more symmetric. Surprisingly, foreign trade and inward FDI have little effect on the symmetry of shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University in its series CEDI Discussion Paper Series with number 13-01.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:edb:cedidp:13-01

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  1. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," MNB Working Papers 2005/03, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Staff Reports 91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Elena Jarocinska, 2010. "Intergovernmental grants in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(2), pages 405-427, 04.
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  5. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
  7. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, 01.
  8. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 101, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  9. Poncet, Sandra & Barthélemy, Jean, 2008. "China as an Integrated Area?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 896-926.
  10. Xu, Xinpeng, 2002. "Have the Chinese provinces become integrated under reform?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 116-133.
  11. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, 07.
  12. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
  13. Li, Jia, 2012. "On the Empirics of China's Inter-regional Risk Sharing," MPRA Paper 37805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Tang, K. K., 1998. "Economic Integration of the Chinese Provinces: A Business Cycle Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 549-570.
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