The UK Intranational Trade Cycle
AbstractThe paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the “UK idiosyncrasy” they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7152.
Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Other versions of this item:
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 111, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2009. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Discussion Paper Series 234, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2009. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," SERC Discussion Papers 0019, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
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