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Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission

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  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

Abstract

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2004. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separatec periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870 to 1914), the period of the “bloc economy” (1915 to 1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960-2004). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr110.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 110.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:110

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Artis & Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2011. "What Drives Regional Business Cycles? The Role Of Common And Spatial Components," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(5), pages 1035-1044, 09.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Andreas Rees, 2009. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers: Rising Challenges for Central Banks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 922, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2009. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," CSEF Working Papers 233, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Ewa Szymanik, 2012. "Business Cycles and Their International Transmission – the Introduction to the Problem," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 55-72.
  5. Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Business Cycle, Currency and Trade, Revisited," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-019, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
  6. Michael Artis & Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2009. "Common and Spatial Drivers in Regional Business Cycles," SERC Discussion Papers 0022, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  7. Sebastian Florian Enea & Silvia Palaºcã, 2012. "Globalization Versus Segregation - Business Cycles Synchronization In Europe," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 668-692, December.
  8. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  9. Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2011. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2011/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).

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