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The UK intranational business cycle

Author

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  • Michael Artis

    (Economics Department, University of Swansea, and CEPR, London, UK)

  • Toshihiro Okubo

    (RIEB, Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for 12 UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional|sectoral business cycles using a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the USA and the euro area. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP are not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral|regional cycles, with their greater variance, it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that while they continue to provide support for the 'UK idiosyncrasy' they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2010. "The UK intranational business cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 71-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:1-2:p:71-93
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mejía-Reyes, Pablo & Rendón-Rojas, Liliana & Vergara-González, Reyna & Aroca, Patricio, 2018. "International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 278-288.
    3. Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel & Gómez-Zaldívar, Fernando, 2024. "Estructura económica y sincronización de los ciclos económicos: Evidencia de los estados de México," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 58, pages 163-177.
    4. López, María del Carmen Delgado & Fonseca-Zendejas, Alejandro Steven, 2023. "Analysis of the intersectoral synchronization of the Mexican economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 225-235.
    5. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    6. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Exciess Demand," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-35, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    7. Liu, Dayu & Wang, Qiaoru & Song, Yang, 2020. "China’s business cycles at the provincial level: National synchronization, interregional coordination and provincial idiosyncrasy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 629-650.
    8. Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel & Garcia-Barragan, Fernando, 2022. "Trade Integration and Intra-national Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico’s States from 1980 to 2019," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 216-234.
    9. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

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