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Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions

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  • Jan Fidrmuc
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Shuo Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the changing nature of economic integration in China. Specifically, we consider business-cycle synchronization (correlation of demand and supply shocks) among Chinese provinces during the period 1955-2007. We find that the symmetry of supply shocks has declined after the liberalization initiated in 1978. In contrast, the correlation of demand shocks has increased during the same period. We then seek to explain these correlations by relating them to factors that proxy for interprovincial trade and vulnerability of regions to idiosyncratic shocks. Interprovincial trade and similarity in factor endowments tend to make shocks more symmetric. Surprisingly, foreign trade and inward FDI have little effect on the symmetry of shocks.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2013/wp-cesifo-2013-04/cesifo1_wp4220.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4220.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4220

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Keywords: VAR model; business cycle synchronization; China; reform;

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  1. Belton Fleisher & Haizheng Li & Min-Qiang Zhao, 2009. "Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Regional Inequality in China," Working Papers 09-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Paper Series 221, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
  4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  5. Elena Jarocinska, 2010. "Intergovernmental grants in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(2), pages 405-427, 04.
  6. Li, Jia, 2012. "On the Empirics of China's Inter-regional Risk Sharing," MPRA Paper 37805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  8. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," MNB Working Papers 2005/03, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  9. Tang, K. K., 1998. "Economic Integration of the Chinese Provinces: A Business Cycle Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 549-570.
  10. Xu, Xinpeng, 2002. "Have the Chinese provinces become integrated under reform?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 116-133.
  11. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, 07.
  12. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
  13. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, 01.
  14. Poncet, Sandra & Barthélemy, Jean, 2008. "China as an Integrated Area?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 896-926.
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