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Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination

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Author Info
Robert Inklaar ()
Richard Jong-A-Pin ()
Jakob de Haan ()

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Abstract

This paper re-examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries during 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialisation, financial integration, and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects business cycle synchronization, but the effect is much smaller than previously reported. Other factors in our model have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity. Finally, we find that the effect of trade on business cycle synchronisation is not driven by outliers and does not suffer from parameter heterogeneity.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1546.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1546

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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; trade; synchronization of business cycles;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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  13. U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2007. "Does Terror Threaten Human Rights? Evidence from Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-156, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," Discussion Paper Series 232, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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