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Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization and the Synchronization of Economic Activity

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  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  • Elias Papaioannou
  • José Luis Peydró

Abstract

We analyze the impact of financial globalization on business cycle synchronization utilizing a proprietary database on banks' international exposure for industrialized countries during 1978- 2006. Theory makes ambiguous predictions and identification has been elusive due to lack of bilateral time-varying financial linkages data. In contrast to conventional wisdom and previous empirical studies, we identify a strong negative effect of banking integration on output synchronization, conditional on global shocks and country-pair heterogeneity. Similarly, we show divergent economic activity as a result of higher integration using an exogenous de-jure measure of integration based on financial regulations that harmonized segmented EU markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14887.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Publication status: published as Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, 06.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14887

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  2. Stavarek, Daniel & Repkova, Iveta & Gajdosova, Katarina, 2011. "Theory of financial integration and achievements in the European Union," MPRA Paper 34393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Paul R. Bergin & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2012. "Multilateral Resistance to International Portfolio Diversification," NBER Working Papers 17907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Chang, Koyin & Kim, Yoonbai & Tomljanovich, Marc & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2013. "Do political parties foster business cycles? An examination of developed economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 212-226.
  5. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2011. "Vulnerable Banks," IDEI Working Papers 700, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 1. Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Bank-Balance-Sheet Contagion and Financial Account Structure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 902, OECD Publishing.
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  9. Gorea, Denis & Radev, Deyan, 2014. "The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-100.
  10. Donnelly, Catherine & Guillén, Montserrat & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2014. "Bringing cost transparency to the life annuity market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 14-27.
  11. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  12. Christensen, Hans B. & Hail, Luzi & Leuz, Christian, 2013. "Mandatory IFRS reporting and changes in enforcement," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 147-177.
  13. Dirk Schoenmaker & Wolf Wagner, 2011. "The Impact of Cross-Border Banking on Financial Stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-054/2/DSF18, Tinbergen Institute.

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