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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement

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Jarko Fidrmuc

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Abstract

This article tests the endogeneity hypothesis of optimum currency area (OCA) criteria in a cross-section of OECD countries in the 1990s. It argues that intraindustry trade induces convergence of business cycles, while no direct relation between business cycles and bilateral trade intensity is found. This finding confirms the OCA endogeneity hypothesis, but it underlines the role of trade specialization. Furthermore, the endogeneity of OCA criteria implies a comparable degree of business cycle harmonization of Central and Eastern European countries with the EU as for the current members in the medium run. (JEL "F15", "F41") Copyright 2004 Western Economic Association International.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1093/cep/byh001
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 1-12
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Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:1-12

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carlin, Wendy & Glyn, Andrew & Van Reenen, John, 2001. "Export Market Performance of OECD Countries: An Empirical Examination of the Role of Cost Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(468), pages 128-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Eduard HOCHREITER & Georg WINCKLER, 1993. "The Advantages of Tying Austria's Hands: The Success of the Hard Currency Strategy," Vienna Economics Papers vie9307, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
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  5. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rudolf Loertscher & Frank Wolter, 1980. "Determinants of intra-industry trade: Among countries and across industries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 280-293, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dixit, Avinash, 2000. "A Repeated Game Model of Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 759-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Portes, Richard, 2001. "The Euro and the International Financial System," CEPR Discussion Papers 2955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia," Transition Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Verification of the New Trade Theory in EU's Trade with CEECs," Economics Series 72, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  16. George Kopits, 1999. "Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 99/9, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Barry Eichengreen & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1036, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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