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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc

Abstract

This article tests the endogeneity hypothesis of optimum currency area (OCA) criteria in a cross-section of OECD countries in the 1990s. It argues that intraindustry trade induces convergence of business cycles, while no direct relation between business cycles and bilateral trade intensity is found. This finding confirms the OCA endogeneity hypothesis, but it underlines the role of trade specialization. Furthermore, the endogeneity of OCA criteria implies a comparable degree of business cycle harmonization of Central and Eastern European countries with the EU as for the current members in the medium run. (JEL "F15", "F41") Copyright 2004 Western Economic Association International.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:1-12

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  1. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August.
  2. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 11 edited by Morten Balling.
  3. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia," Transition Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Eduard HOCHREITER & Georg WINCKLER, 1993. "The Advantages of Tying Austria's Hands: The Success of the Hard Currency Strategy," Vienna Economics Papers vie9307, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  5. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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