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Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries

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Iikka Korhonen

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Abstract

This note looks at the correlation of short-term business cycles in the euro area and the EU accession countries. The issue is assessed with the help of vector autoregressive models. There are clear differences in the degree of correlation between accession countries. For Hungary and Slovenia, euro area shocks can explain a large share of variation in industrial production, while for some countries this influence is much smaller. For the latter countries, the results imply that joining the monetary union could entail reasonably large costs, unless their business cycles converge closer to the euro area cycle. Generally, for smaller countries the relative influence of the euro area business cycle is larger. Also, it is found that the most advanced accession countries are at least as integrated with the euro area business cycle as some small present member countries of the monetary union. Copyright (c)The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-0351.00144
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Publisher Info
Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal The Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 11 (2003-03)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 177-196
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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:11:y:2003-03:i:1:p:177-196

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  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic factor models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 27-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Matkowski, Z. & Prochniak, M., 2004. "Real Economic Convergence in the EU Accession Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(3), pages 5-38. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "How much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-061, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Econometrics 0403006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know – and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? : Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Clement van de Coevering, 2003. "Structural convergence and monetary integration in Europe," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-20, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ramon Maria-Dolores & Jose Garcia-Solanes, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 306, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bettina Becker & Stephen G. Hall, 2009. "A new look at economic convergence in Europe: a common factor approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 85-97. [Downloadable!]
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  16. DomeNico Raguseo & Jan Sebo, 2008. "Optimum Currency Areas theory and the Slovak suitability for the euro adoption," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(40), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 06.12, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "The euro goes East. Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEEs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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