The Shrinking Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union – A Beta Regression Approach
AbstractThe endogeneity of optimum currency areas criteria has been widely studied since Frankel and Rose (1998) seminal paper. Literature normally suggests that there is a positive relationship between trade and business cycles correlation. This paper develops work on this subject (Silvestre and Mendonça, 2007) where we confirm this hypothesis in euro area countries and UE-15 for 1967-2003 period using OLS and 2SLS estimates. However, we also find then that trade influence on cycles synchronization diminished in the last years. Now our goal was precisely to evaluate this question. Using a non-linear model based on Beta distribution in the same sample, we concluded that trade has a decreasing marginal effect on business cycles correlation. This result shows that trade flows are important in the first stages of economic integration, but become less important as trade intensity increases. Other factors must then be considered.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2007/22.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC
European Monetary Union (EMU); Business Cycles Correlation; Optimum Currency Areas; International Trade; Beta Regression.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-10-20 (European Economics)
- NEP-INT-2007-10-20 (International Trade)
- NEP-MAC-2007-10-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-10-20 (Monetary Economics)
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