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Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (oca) Criteria in the Light of EMU

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  • M.J. Artis

Abstract

The objective of this paper is first to review the use that has been made of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory in the European Monetary Union (EMU) context. Second, to look at some of its predictions in that respect. And third, to appraise some of the new theories - or speculations - that have arisen, partly as a result of the confrontation of the theory with the data. This is an area in which politics are very important; they play an important role in the reception and interpretation of positive work. Tentative ideas and speculative hypotheses acquire the aura of accomplished fact, whilst a single empirical illustration can be given the status of a many-times confirmed demonstration. This paper tries to be more careful in these remarks. Whilst history offers some instructive lessons, as illustrated for example in the work of Bordo and Jonung (1999), the fact is that in most relevant respects EMU represents an unparalleled experiment, with corresponding difficulties for empirical work.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 193.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:193

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References

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  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  3. repec:wop:humbsf:2000-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Buiter, Willem H, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1994. "How Wide is the Border?," NBER Working Papers 4829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Artis, M. & Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999. "The European Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers eco99/24, European University Institute.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley qt5th597st, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Artis, Michael J & Ehrmann, Michael, 2000. "The Exchange Rate - A Shock-Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of Four Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Breitung, Jörg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2000. "Common cycles: A frequency domain approach," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,99, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  11. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1994. "A Common Monetary Standard or a Common Currency for Europe? Fiscal Lessons from the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 337-57, November.
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  13. Artis, Michael J & Kohler, Marion & Mélitz, Jacques, 1998. "Trade and the Number of Optimum Currency Areas in the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 1926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  15. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  16. repec:fth:bfsefi:11/99 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002, Royal Economic Society 140, Royal Economic Society.
  18. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  19. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 243-247, May.
  21. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
  22. Artis, M.J. & Zhang, W., 2002. "Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 54-79.
  23. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Hossein Samiei & Zenon Kontolemis G., 2000. "The U.K. Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, and EMU Entry," IMF Working Papers 00/210, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963-1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110, November.
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  27. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Contribution Of Domestic, Regional And International Factors To Latin America'S Business Cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2008-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Maryline Huchet-Bourdon, 2009. "Shock asymmetries and distance to the Euro Area," Post-Print hal-00730072, HAL.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Are The Baltic Countries Ready To Adopt The Euro? A Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 429-454, 06.
  4. Jonung, Lars, 2004. "To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003," MPRA Paper 1334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Spahn, Peter, 2012. "Integration durch Währungsunion? Der Fall der Euro-Zone," FZID Discussion Papers 57-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  6. Lars Jonung, 2004. "The Political Economy of Monetary Unification: The Swedish Euro Referendum of 2003," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 123-149, Spring/Su.
  7. Foresti, Pasquale, 2007. "Is Latin America an Optimal Currency Area? Evidence from a Structural Vector Auto-regression analysis," MPRA Paper 2961, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.
  8. Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2006. "The Euro and Other Major Currencies Floating Against the U.S. Dollar," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 367-384, December.
  9. Heinz Handler, 2013. "The Eurozone: Piecemeal Approach to an Optimum Currency Area," WIFO Working Papers, WIFO 446, WIFO.
  10. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
  11. Hall, S.G. & Yhap, B., 2008. "Measuring the Correlation of Shocks Between the UK and the Core of Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 17-26, March.

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