Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland
AbstractThis paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse responses. Several Wald tests are applied to the latter hypothesis. Results reveal that differences in the GDP dynamics in several peripheral countries compared to a euro zone core are triggered by idiosyncratic, and to a lesser extent also world, shocks. Additionally, real shocks prove relevant rather than nominal ones.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Mannheim, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 12-11.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Common cycles ; euro area ; impulse responses ; structural VAR ; Wald tes;
Other versions of this item:
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 466, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2012-06-25 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2012-06-25 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2013.
"Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis,
Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 287-295, July.
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Codependent VAR Models and the Pseudo-Structural Form," Working Papers 12-10, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Codependent VAR Models and the Pseudo-Structural Form," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 465, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990.
"Testing For Common Features,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christoph Schleicher, 2007.
"Codependence in cointegrated autoregressive models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 137-159.
- Christoph Schleicher, 2004. "Codependence in Cointegrated Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 286, Society for Computational Economics.
- Harris Dellas & George S.Tavlas, 2009.
"An Optimum-Currency-Area Odyssey,"
102, Bank of Greece.
- Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2010. "Testing for Codependence of Non-Stationary Variables," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 446, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
- Nicos Christodoulakis, 2008.
"Ten years of EMU: Convergence, Divergence and New Policy Priorities,"
Research and Policy Notes
2008/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU: convergence, divergence and new policy priorities," GreeSE â Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 22, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
- Poskitt, D. S., 2003. "On the specification of cointegrated autoregressive moving-average forecasting systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-519.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Blanchard and Quah AER 1989," Statistical Software Components RTZ00017, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "BQDODRAWS: RATS procedure to implement Monte Carlo draws from a VAR with Blanchard-Quah factorization," Statistical Software Components RTS00030, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993.
"Convergence in International Output,"
93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The Bootstrap," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 52, pages 3159-3228 Elsevier.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & POSKITT, D.S., 1996. "Testing for Causation Using Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 61-87, March.
- Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common dynamics in I(1) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0316, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- Kim, Yoonbai & Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2003. "Optimum currency area in Europe: an alternative assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 297-304, December.
- Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katharina Rautenberg).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.