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How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?

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  • Lutz Kilian

    (University of Michigan and CEPR)

  • Yun Jung Kim

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

We compare the finite-sample performance of impulse response confidence intervals based on local projections (LPs) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models in linear stationary settings. We find that in small samples, the asymptotic LP interval often is less accurate than the bias-adjusted bootstrap VAR interval, notwithstanding its excessive average length. Although the asymptotic LP interval has adequate coverage in sufficiently large samples, its average length still far exceeds that of bias-adjusted bootstrap VAR intervals with comparable accuracy. Bootstrap LP intervals (with or without bias correction) and asymptotic VAR intervals are shorter on average, but they often lack coverage accuracy in finite samples. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1460-1466

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:93:y:2011:i:4:p:1460-1466

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Cited by:
  1. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 1013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 466, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  3. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
  6. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 9892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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