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Monetary Union and the Outsiders - A Cointegration/ Codependence Analysis of Business Cycles in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Rubin

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Niels Thygesen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

A cointegration/codependence analysis of monthly production and price indices in EU member states during the 1983-1994 period yields evidence that responses to cyclical innovations become coordinated after three months, and that each of the contries studied exhibit a business cycle in one of three possible phases. This suggests that the 9 countries studied show a sufficient degree of co-movement in their main economic series to make their participation in a monetary union feasible. This has implications for a currently plausible scenario in which a core group qualifies according to the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty while others do not. Our analysis suggests little difference between six presumed 'insiders' and three likely 'outsiders' with regard to coordination of their business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Rubin & Niels Thygesen, 1996. "Monetary Union and the Outsiders - A Cointegration/ Codependence Analysis of Business Cycles in Europe," Discussion Papers 96-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9608
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    Cited by:

    1. Boewer Böwer, Uwe, 2006. "Risk Sharing, Financial integration, and "Mundell II" in the Enlarged European Union," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt2xz37086, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    2. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo & Daniel Lederman & Maurizio Bussolo & David Gould & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Challenges of CAFTA : Maximizing the Benefits for Central America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7127, December.
    3. Norbert Fiess, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 49-72.
    4. Jacky Fayolle & Paul-Emmanuel Micolet, 1997. "Réalité et déboires de l'espace conjoncturel européen : une régulation sans croissance ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 62(1), pages 5-28.
    5. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    6. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    7. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
    8. Stamatopoulos T., 2001. "Trade Balance and Exchange-Rate for a Small Open Economy During the EMS: The Hellinic Case 1983:1-1995:12," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 121-140, July - De.
    9. Stamatopoulos Theodoros, 2005. "Trade Balance and Exchange-Rate for a Small Open Economy during the EMS: The Hellenic Case 1983:1-1995:12," International Finance 0505012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Michel Beine & Bertrand Candelon & Alain Hecq, 2000. "Assessing a Perfect European Optimum Currency Area: A Common Cycles Approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 115-132, June.
    11. Jörg Breitung & Bertrand Candelon, 2001. "Is There a Common European Business Cycle?: New Insights from a Frequency Domain Analysis," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 331-338.
    12. Juan Luís Ollero & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach-Caralt, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of EMU at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa01p146, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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