Are The Baltic Countries Ready To Adopt The Euro? A Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Approach
AbstractThis paper focuses on macroeconomic interdependencies between the Euro area and three transition economies (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia), with the aim of establishing whether the latter are ready to adopt the Euro. The theoretical framework is based on the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis, which is empirically tested within a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Using both monthly and quarterly data over the period 1993-2005, it is found that GPPP holds for the real exchange rate vis-Ã -vis the Euro of each Baltic country, reflecting a degree of real convergence consistent with Optimum Currency Area criteria. Further, the adopted joint modelling approach for the real exchange rates of the Baltic region outperforms a number of alternative models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.
Volume (Year): 79 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
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- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "Are the Baltic Countries Ready to Adopt the Euro? A Generalised Purchasing Power Parity Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2359, CESifo Group Munich.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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