Are the Baltic Countries Ready to Adopt the Euro? A Generalised Purchasing Power Parity Approach
AbstractThis paper focuses on macroeconomic interdependencies between the Euro area and three transition economies (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia), with the aim of establishing whether the latter are ready to adopt the Euro. The theoretical framework is based on the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis, which is empirically tested within a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Using both monthly and quarterly data over the period 1993-2005, it is found that GPPP holds for the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the Euro of each Baltic country, reflecting a degree of real convergence consistent with Optimum Currency Area criteria. Further, the adopted joint modelling approach for the real exchange rates of the Baltic region outperforms a number of alternative models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2359.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
transition economies; Euro area; (Generalised) Purchasing Power Parity; Vector Error Corrector models;
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Are The Baltic Countries Ready To Adopt The Euro? A Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 429-454, 06.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002.
"ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
140, Royal Economic Society.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
- M.J. Artis, 2003.
"Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
- M.J. Artis, 2002. "Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (oca) Criteria in the Light of EMU," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 193, Central Bank of Chile.
- Artis, Michael J., 2002. "Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," Working Papers 69, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006.
"Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- M Pesaran & R Smith & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models exogenous i(1) variables," ESE Discussion Papers 38, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2001.
"Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
- Canzoneri, Matthew B & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1990. "Is the European Community an Optimal Currency Area? Optimal Taxation versus the Cost of Multiple Currencies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 419-33, June.
- Broeck, Mark De & Sløk, Torsten, 2001.
"Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
- International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kocenda, Evzen, 2001. "Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-23, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Breuss, Fritz & Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter, 2004. "How well prepared are the New Member States for the European Monetary Union?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 769-791, October.
- Norman R. Swanson, 2010.
"Further Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Variables,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics,
Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(2), pages 187-190, spring.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Swanson, N., 1995. "Further Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Variables," Papers 4-95-13, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
- Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, December.
- Barry Eichengreen., 1990.
"Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?,"
Economics Working Papers
90-151, University of California at Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," NBER Working Papers 3579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt40m5g6pp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Granger, Clive W J & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Separation in Cointegrated Systems and Persistent-Transitory Decompositions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 449-63, November.
- Aizenman, Joshua, 1992. "Competitive Externalities and the Optimal Seigniorage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 61-71, February.
- Alessandro Girardi & Paolo Paesani, 2008. "The Transfer Problem in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 517-537, September.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993.
"Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
- Lee, Minsoo & Nziramasanga, Mudziviri & Ahn, Sung K., 2002. "The real exchange rate: an alternative approach to the PPP puzzle," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 533-538, October.
- Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 1994. "Theory and Tests of Generalized Purchasing-Power Parity: Common Trends and Real Exchange Rates in the Pacific Rim," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 179-90, June.
- Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Responses of Output to Declining Stock Values and Real Depreciation in Lituania," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(4), pages 429-437.
- Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
- John Beirne, 2009. "Vulnerability of inflation in the new EU Member States to country-specific and global factors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1420-1431.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.