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Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples

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  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Jan Piplack
  • Stefan Straetmans

Abstract

In this paper, we study the degree of business cycle synchronization by means of a small sample version of the Harding and Pagan's ["Journal of Econometrics" (2006) Vol. 132, pp. 59-79] Generalized Method of Moment test. We show that the asymptotic version of the test gets increasingly distorted in small samples when the number of countries grows large. However, a block bootstrapped version of the test can remedy the size distortion when the time series length divided by the number of countries "T"/"n" is sufficiently large. Applying the technique to a number of business cycle proxies of developed economies, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of a non-zero common multivariate synchronization index for certain economically meaningful subsets of these countries. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2009.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 715-737

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:5:p:715-737

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Cited by:
  1. Luis J. Álvarez & Guido Bulligan & Alberto Cabrero & Laurent Ferrara & Harald Stahl, 2010. "Housing Cycles In The Major Euro Area Countries," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 1001, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gomez Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles Inside Cycles. Spanish Regional Aggregation," WIFO Working Papers 390, WIFO.

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