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Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race

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  • Maurizio Bovi

Abstract

This paper examines the relative cyclical affiliation in six industrialized economies. While the broad conclusions are consistent with the existing literature, the proposed empirical framework is not based on correlations and permits the analysis of relative groupwise synchronization under very few assumptions. The results allow us to conclude that an English‐speaking club (Canada, UK, USA) is emerging in the last decades, whereas explicit and formal commitments seem to have had a relatively weaker power in determining Euro‐zone (France, Germany, Italy) business cycle comovements. Altogether, the business cycle race is a cause for concern as regards the entry of the UK into the Euro‐zone.

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  • Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 331-345, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:3:p:331-345
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00122.x
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    1. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.
    2. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Kurowski, Łukasz & Rogowicz, Karol, 2018. "Are business and credit cycles synchronised internally or externally?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 124-141.
    4. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    5. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Globalization and business cycle transmission," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 91-99, August.

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