Cycles Inside Cycles. Spanish Regional Aggregation
AbstractThis paper sets out a comprehensive framework to identify regional business cycles within Spain and analyses their stylised features and the degree of synchronisation among them and the Spanish economy. We show that the regional cycles are quite heterogeneous although they display some degree of synchronisation that can be partially explained using macroeconomic variables. We also propose a dynamic factor model to cluster the regional co-movements and test if the country cycle is simply the aggregation of the regional ones. We find that the Spanish business cycle is not shared by the 17 regions, but is the sum of the different regional behaviours. The implications derived from our results are useful both for policy makers and analysts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 390.
Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Business Cycle. Synchronisation measures. Dynamic factor models;
Other versions of this item:
- Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
- Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio MontaÃ±es, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-03-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CSE-2011-03-12 (Economics of Strategic Management)
- NEP-GEO-2011-03-12 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-MAC-2011-03-12 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2011-03-12 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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