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Do european business cycles look like one?

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Author Info

  • Máximo Camacho

    ()
    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

    ()
    (Economic Bureau of the President)

  • Lorena Saiz

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We find evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we find no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/05/Fic/dt0518e.pdf
File Function: First version, August 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0518.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0518

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle characteristics; economic integration; european union enlargement; stationary bootstrap; model based cluster analysis;

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  3. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000, Society for Computational Economics 132, Society for Computational Economics.
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  11. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers, Lund University, Department of Economics 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
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  20. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers, Banco de Espa�a 0518, Banco de Espa�a.
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