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Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$

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  • Maximo Camacho

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

    (Prime Minister's economic bureau)

  • Lorena Saiz

    ()
    (Research department Banco de España)

  • Universidad de Murcia

Abstract

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We nd evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we nd no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

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File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.11504.1140190011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 175.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:175

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
  2. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A measure of co-movement for economic variables: theory and empirics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10139, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  5. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0408, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  8. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Econometrics 0403006, EconWPA.
  9. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  13. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
  14. M. Dueker & K. Wesche, 1999. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity," Discussion Paper Serie B 448, University of Bonn, Germany.
  15. Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  16. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  17. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise, 1995. "Classical Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  19. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Crowley, Patrick, 2008. "One Money, Several Cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
  2. Jakob de Haan & Jan Jacobs & Mark Mink, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2112, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 06-03, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  4. Balazs Egert & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," CESifo Working Paper Series 3824, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2014. "Output gap and non-linear economic convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
  6. Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.

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