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Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$

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Author Info
Maximo Camacho (Universidad de Murcia)
Gabriel Perez-Quiros (Prime Minister's economic bureau)
Lorena Saiz () (Research department Banco de España)
Universidad de Murcia

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Abstract

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We nd evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we nd no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 175.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:175

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2004. "Characterizing the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/20, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Crowley, Patrick, 2008. "One Money, Several Cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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