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Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$

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  • Maximo Camacho

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

    (Prime Minister's economic bureau)

  • Lorena Saiz

    () (Research department Banco de España)

  • Universidad de Murcia

Abstract

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We nd evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we nd no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

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File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.11504.1140190011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 175.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:175

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
  2. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  3. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 16, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.
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  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  7. Croux, Christophe & Forni, M & Reichlin, L, 2001. "A measure of comovement for economic variables: Theory and empirics," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/99012, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
  8. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  9. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "Classical And Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economics Series Working Papers 9960, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  11. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  12. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
  13. Anna Maria Agresti & Benoit Mojon, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the Euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 095, European Central Bank.
  14. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Econometrics 0403006, EconWPA.
  15. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  16. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  17. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
  18. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise, 1995. "Classical Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Crowley, Patrick, 2008. "One Money, Several Cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
  2. Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Balazs Egert & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," CESifo Working Paper Series 3824, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Jakob de Haan & Jan Jacobs & Mark Mink, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2112, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Jesús Rodríguez López & José L. Torres, . "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 06-03, FEDEA.

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