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States and the business cycle

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Author Info
Owyang, Michael T.
Rapach, David E.
Wall, Howard J.

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Abstract

We model the US business cycle using a dynamic factor model that identifies common factors underlying fluctuations in state-level income and employment growth. We find three such common factors, each of which is associated with a set of factor loadings that indicate the extent to which each state's economy is related to the national business cycle. According to the factor loadings, there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the nature of the links between state and national economies. In addition to exhibiting geographic patterns, the closeness of state economies to the national business cycle is related not only to differences in industry mix but also to non-industry variables such as agglomeration and neighbor effects. Finally, we find that the common factors tend to explain large proportions of the total variability in state-level business cycles, although, again, there is a great deal of cross-state heterogeneity.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 181-194
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Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:65:y:2009:i:2:p:181-194

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

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Related research
Keywords: State business cycles Common factors;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wall, Howard J & Zoega, Gylfi, 2002. " The British Beveridge Curve: A Tale of Ten Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 261-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Clark, Todd E, 1998. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 202-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Theodore M. Crone, 2005. "An Alternative Definition of Economic Regions in the United States Based on Similarities in State Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 617-626, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 23-32. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chad R. Wilkerson, 2009. "Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-24. [Downloadable!]
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