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Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure

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Author Info

  • Maximo Camacho

    ()
    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Pilar Poncela

    ()
    (Universidad autónoma de Madrid)

Abstract

We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relations between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. According to our empirical results, we think that the real time probabilities of recession are an appropriate statistic to capture what the press call green shoots.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/10/Fic/dt1026e.pdf
File Function: First version, July 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1026.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1026

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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles; Output Growth; Time Series;

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Cited by:
  1. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
  2. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2013. "Construyendo un índice coincidente de recesión: Una aplicación para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 81-100.
  3. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
  4. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2012. "Constructing a real-time coincident recession index: an application to the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2012-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  5. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
  6. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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