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Do European business cycles look like one?

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Author Info
Camacho, Maximo
Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
Saiz, Lorena

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Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive framework to analyze business cycle features other than synchronization. We use stationary bootstrap and model-based clustering methods to analyze similarities and differences among the European cycles. We find evidence that the length, deep and shape of cycles differ across European countries and that these differences are not decreasing over time. Finally, even though we find some correlation between business cycle synchronization and characteristics, there is important information in the characteristics that is not captured by the synchronization measures.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 2165-2190
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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:2165-2190

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/20, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  5. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 16, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 59-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
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  10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  11. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2004. "Characterizing the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Anna Maria Agresti & Benoit Mojon, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the Euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 095, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise, 1995. "Classical Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2007. "Dating EU15 Monthly Business Cycle Jointly Using GDP and IPI," Working Papers 2007_19, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 06.12, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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