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Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union: The Effect of the Common Currency

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  • Periklis Gogas

    (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece; The Rimini Center for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

In this paper, I analyse the synchronization of business cycles within the E.U., as this is an important ingredient for the implementation of a successful monetary policy. The business cycles of twelve E.U. countries and two sub-groups of countries are extracted for the period 1989Q1-2010Q2. The cycle of G3, the group of the three largest European economies (Germany, France and Italy) is then used as a benchmark series for the comparisons. The sensitivity of the data to alternative cycle extraction methodologies is explored employing the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filters using alternative parameter specifications and leads/lags. The strength of cycle synchronization is measured using linear regressions, cross-correlation coefficients and the Cycle Synchronization Index (CSI). To assess whether synchronization is stronger after the introduction of the common currency, we also test two sub-samples pre- and post-EMU (1999Q1). The empirical results provide evidence that cycle synchronization within the Eurozone has become stronger in the common currency period.

Suggested Citation

  • Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union: The Effect of the Common Currency," Working Paper series 18_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:18_13
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Euro zone: the common cycle is strong
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-06-13 19:07:00

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    1. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Sarantitis, Georgios Antonios, 2016. "International business cycle synchronization since the 1870s: Evidence from a novel network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 286-296.
    2. Krzysztof Beck, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization In European Union: Regional Perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 785-815, December.
    3. Aleberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini & Francesco Trebbi, 2017. "Is Europe an Optimal Political Area?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 169-234.
    4. Dionysios Chionis & Fotios Mitropoulos & Antonios Sarantidis, 2021. "Business cycles and macroeconomic asymmetries: New evidence from Eurozone and European countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5977-5996, October.
    5. Andreas Brunhart, 2015. "The Swiss Business Cycle and the Lead of Small Neighbor Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 51, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    6. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.
    7. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    8. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    9. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    11. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Georgios Sarantitis, 2016. "Convergence of European Business Cycles: A Complex Networks Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 97-119, February.
    12. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Georgios Antonios Sarantitis, 2014. "European Business Cycle Synchronization: A Complex Network Perspective," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, in: Valery A. Kalyagin & Panos M. Pardalos & Themistocles M. Rassias (ed.), Network Models in Economics and Finance, edition 127, pages 265-275, Springer.
    13. Luis à ngel Hierro & Antonio José Garzón & Helena Domínguez-Torres, 2019. "20 Years of European Monetary Policy. From Doctrinarism to Realpolitik," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(3), pages 149-172, December.
    14. Jianu, Ionut, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 19-32.
    15. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Fotios Gkatzoglou, 2022. "The Convergence Evolution in Europe from a Complex Networks Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Synchronization; Eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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