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Regionalization vs. Globalization

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  • Hideaki Hirata
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Christopher Otrok

Abstract

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960-2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.

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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2013-09.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-09

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Keywords: Business cycles; Comovement; Synchronization; Trade linkages; Financial linkages;

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Cited by:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," NBER Working Papers 19062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & León-Ledesma, Miguel, 2013. "World, country, and sector factors in international business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2913-2927.
  3. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2012. "Housing Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications 77379, Inter-American Development Bank.
  4. Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1241, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Kamel GARFA, 2013. "Couplage Ou Découplage Des Cycles Économiques Des Mena : Une Approche En Termes De Modèle A Facteurs Dynamiques," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 225-247.
  7. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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