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Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

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  • Zsolt Darvas
  • György Szapáry

Abstract

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number 0604.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0604

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Keywords: business cycle synchronization; consumption-correlation puzzle; EMU; new EU members; OCA endogeneity;

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