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VARs, Common Factors and the Empirical Validation of Equilibrium Business Cycle Models

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Author Info
Giannone, Domenico
Reichlin, Lucrezia
Sala, Luca

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Abstract

Equilibrium business cycle models have typically less shocks than variables. As pointed out by Altug, 1989, and Sargent, 1989, if variables are measured with error, this characteristic implies that the model solution for measured variables has a factor structure. This Paper compares estimation performance for the impulse response coefficients based on a VAR approximation to this class of models and an estimation method that explicitly takes into account the restrictions implied by the factor structure. Bias and mean squared error for both factor based and VAR based estimates of impulse response functions are quantified using, as a data generating process, a calibrated standard equilibrium business cycle model. We show that, at short horizons, VAR estimates of impulse response functions are less accurate than factor estimates while the two methods perform similarly at medium and long run horizons.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3701.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3701

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Related research
Keywords: dynamic factor models; equilibrium business cycle models; identification; structural VARs;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2007. "Productivity and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2007-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2006. "Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," ECARES Working Papers 2008_012, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," ECARES Working Papers 2008_036, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2009. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 1135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gregor Bäurle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
  9. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. rea cipollini & giuseppe missaglia, 2005. "Business cycle effects on Portfolio Credit Risk: scenario generation through Dynamic Factor analysis," Finance 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  12. DUPAIGNE, Martial & FÈVE, Patrick & MATHERON, Julien, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Employment: Do We Really Need DSGE Models with a Fall in Hours?," IDEI Working Papers 349, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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