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A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast

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Issler, João Victor
Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira

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Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 642.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:642

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  1. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2001. "How To Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 29-69, February. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "Evaluating Latent and Observed Factors in Macroeconomics and Financ," Econometrics 0408007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  7. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2004. "The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 231-255, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1971. "The Estimation of the Variances in a Variance-Components Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Palm, F. & Zellner, A., 1991. "To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers 1991022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  16. Arulampalam, W. & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2002. "University of Warwick," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 9, Royal Economic Society.
  17. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "A Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to Asset Pricing Using Panel Data," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 628, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  18. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Baltagi, Badi H, 1980. "On Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Error Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1547-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  23. Lima, Luiz Renato & Xiao, Zhijie, 2007. "Do shocks last forever? Local persistency in economic time series," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 103-122, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Fuller, Wayne A. & Battese, George E., 1974. "Estimation of linear models with crossed-error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 67-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  31. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1172-1184, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Hoogstrate, Andre J & Palm, Franz C & Pfann, Gerard A, 2000. "Pooling in Dynamic Panel-Data Models: An Application to Forecasting GDP Growth Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 274-83, July.
  37. Quah, Danny, 1994. "Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 9-19. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. " A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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