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Business Cycle Synchrinization of the Euro Area with the New and Negotiating Member Countries

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  • Christos S. Savva
  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Denise R. Osborn

Abstract

We examine business cycle synchronizations between the euro area and the recently acceded EU and currently negotiating countries. Strong evidence is uncovered of time-variation in the degree of comovement between the cyclical components of monthly industrial production indicators for each of these countries with a euro area aggregate, which is then modeled through a bivariate VAR-GARCH specification with a smoothly time-varying correlation that allows for structural change. Where required to account for the observed time-variation in correlations, a double smooth transition conditional correlation model is used to capture a second structural change event. After allowing for dynamics, we find that all new EU members and negotiating countries have at least doubled their business cycle synchronization with the euro area, or changed from negative to positive correlations, since the early 1990s. Furthermore, some have exhibited U-curved or hump-shaped business cycle correlation patterns. The results point to great variety in timing and speed of the correlation shifts across the country sample.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Cyprus Department of Economics in its series University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics with number 7-2007.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ucy:cypeua:7-2007

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Web page: http://www.econ.ucy.ac.cy

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joanna Bruzda, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization according to wavelets – the case of Poland and the euro zone member countries," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 42(3), pages 5-32.
  2. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2013. "Domestic Versus International Determinants Of European Business Cycles: A GVAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2013-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Balli, Hatice Ozer, 2013. "International Income Risk-Sharing and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008--2009," MPRA Paper 43720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jason Jones & Nora Collins & Lauren Sribnick, 2012. "External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 28-39, February.
  5. Degiannakis, Stavros & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-varying Business Cycles Synchronisation in Europe," MPRA Paper 52925, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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