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Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • György Szapáry

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

It is generally recognized that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyze the synchronization of business cycles between the EMU and eight new EU members from Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), for which the next step to be considered in the integration process is entry into the EMU. In contrast to the usually analyzed GDP and industrial production data, we extend our analysis to the major expenditure and sectoral components of GDP and use several measures of synchronization. The main findings of the paper are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronization with the EMU for GDP, industrial production and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been a significant increase in the synchronization of GDP and also its major components in the EMU members since the start of the run-up to EMU. While this lends support for the existence of OCA endogeneity, it can not be unambiguously attributed to it because there is also evidence of a world business cycle. Another finding is that the consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members, which is good news for common monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2004/1.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2004/1

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle synchronization; consumption-correlation puzzle; EMU; new EU members; OCA endogeneity.;

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Cited by:
  1. Dumitru, Ionut, 2009. "Adoptarea euro in Romania
    [Euro adoption in Romania]
    ," MPRA Paper 18612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective of the New Member States," MNB Working Papers 2004/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Schweickert, Rainer & Šikulová, Ivana, 2004. "Der Weg der Slowakei in die Europäische Union : vom Spätstarter zum Starreformer?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3434, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Ivan Todorov, 2012. "European Economic Integration Theories and Criteria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 131-152.
  6. Igor Veličkovski & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2014. "Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 287-321, May.
  7. Benczúr, Péter & Rátfai, Attila, 2005. "Economic Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe: The Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 0482, European Central Bank.
  9. Tatomir, Cristina F. & Alexe, Ileana, 2011. "Laggards or performers? CEE vs. PIIGS countries’ catch-up with the Euro area in the last ten years," MPRA Paper 35715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Saša Obradović & Vladimir Mihajlović, 2013. "Synchronization of Business Cycles in the Selected European Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 759-773, December.
  11. Tatomir, Cristina F., 2011. "Structural Convergence of the Central and Eastern European Countries: Achivements in the Last Decade," MPRA Paper 35701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Styliani Christodoulopoulou, 2014. "The effect of currency unions on business cycle correlations: the EMU case," Empirica, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 177-222, May.
  13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know – and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2005. "How Synchronized are Central and East European Economies with the Euro Area? Evidence from a Structural Factor model ," TWI Research Paper Series 14, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  15. Lombardo, Giovanni & Ravenna, Federico, 2014. "Openness and optimal monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 153-172.
  16. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.

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