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EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership

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Author Info
Dmitri Boreiko
Abstract

This paper estimates the readiness of the Accession Countries of Central and East Europe for EMU or for unilateral euroisation using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. The variables to which the algorithm is applied are suggested alternately by the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (nominal convergence) and by Optimum Currency Area theory (real convergence). The algorithm reveals that Estonia and Slovenia are the leaders in both nominal and real convergence, whereas the other countries from the 1998 Accession Wave have achieved substantial results only in real convergence. Moreover, Poland is excluded from the leading group in the most recent years due to its worsened economic performance.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 189.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:189

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  1. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F102-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-078, University of California at Berkeley.
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  5. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "EMU and Enlargement," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 481, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 May 2001. [Downloadable!]
  8. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Itir Ozer & Ibrahim Ozkan, 2007. "Optimum filtering for optimum currency areas criteria," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(43), pages 1. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jérôme Trotignon, 2005. "Les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale sont-ils fortement exposés aux chocs sectoriels et géographiques vis-à-vis de la zone euro ?," Post-Print halshs-00161687_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Tanasie, Anca & Fratostiteanu , Cosmin, 2007. "Romania And The Euro. A Relative Positioning Among The Candidates," MPRA Paper 5832, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know – and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  6. Itir Ozer & Ibrahim Ozkan, 2007. "Optimum filtering for optimum currency areas criteria," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(44), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jérôme Trotignon, 2005. "EMU Enlargement to Include CEE Countries: Risks of Sector-based and Geographical Asymmetric Shocks," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 3-21, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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