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EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership

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  • Dmitri Boreiko
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates the readiness of the Accession Countries of Central and East Europe for EMU or for unilateral euroisation using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. The variables to which the algorithm is applied are suggested alternately by the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty (nominal convergence) and by Optimum Currency Area theory (real convergence). The algorithm reveals that Estonia and Slovenia are the leaders in both nominal and real convergence, whereas the other countries from the 1998 Accession Wave have achieved substantial results only in real convergence. Moreover, Poland is excluded from the leading group in the most recent years due to its worsened economic performance.

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    File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc189.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 189.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:189

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    1. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
    3. David Hendry & Jurgen Doornik, 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Series Working Papers 4, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "EMU and Enlargement," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 481, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 May 2001.
    6. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ralph Setzer & Ansgar Belke, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour l’euroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.

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