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Business Cycle Correlation and Output Linkages among the Asia Pacific Economies

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Author Info
Chan, Tze-Haw
Khong, Wye Leong Roy

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Abstract

Currency crises and financial instability in the 1990s have increased the needs of regional cooperation, hence leading to the proposition of optimal currency area (OCA). But only if shocks are symmetric, the cost of relinquish the flexible monetary policy is to be outweighed by the benefits of forming OCA. To tackle the issue, this paper studies the extent of business cycle correlation and output linkages among fifteen Asia Pacific economies during 1961-2004. The real outputs series which sourced from the Penn World Data were estimated in standardized international dollars to construct business cycles based on the Christiano-Fitzgerald (2003)’s asymmetric band-pass filtering method. On the whole, the selected APEC members (especially ASEANs and NIEs) have achieved some important degree of business cycle co-fluctuations since the 1990s and further enhanced after 1997, most possibly attributed to the improved intra-trading and cross-boarder investments. For the US-Japan-ASEAN5 series, a dynamic analysis was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Log bounds test and the Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) representation advanced in Pesaran et al. (2002). Nonetheless, the idiosyncratic and common shocks in ASEAN economies are more identical to the Japanese experience rather than the US’s. The overall finding has signified the brighter likelihood of economic cooperation and regional currency arrangements among APEC members.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11305.

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Date of creation: 30 Dec 2007
Date of revision: 24 Oct 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11305

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycle Correlation; Output linkages; OCA; Asia Pacific; Band-pass Filtering; UECM;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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    Other versions:
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  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-20, April.
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  13. Mundell, Robert, 2003. "Prospects for an Asian currency area," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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