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Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe

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Author Info

  • M Sensier
  • M Artis
  • C R Birchenhall
  • D R Osborn

Abstract

This paper examines the roles of domestic and international variables in predicting classical business cycle regimes in Germany, France, Italy and the UK over the period 1970 to 2001. A range of real and financial variables are used as leading indicators in domestic models, with these variables predicting regimes in Germany relatively well during the in-sample period to 1996, followed (in order) by the UK, Italy and France. Consideration of foreign variables leads to important roles for the composite leading indicators and interest rates of the US and Germany. The relative importance of these variables differs over countries, but overall they confirm the importance of international influences in the business cycles of these European countries. Three-months ahead post-sample forecasts are examined, with the international model for Germany correctly indicating recession during 2001.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr11.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 11.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:11

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Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/
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Related research

Keywords: business cycle dating; financial variables; leading indicators; logistic classification models; regime prediction; business cycle linkages;

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References

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  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
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  17. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  18. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
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