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Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information

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Author Info
Harding, Don
Pagan, Adrian

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Abstract

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response also makes monitoring the business cycle of particular interest for Euro area policy makers. In this paper we summarize recent research on three questions relating to cycles in economic activity --- how to extract cyclical information, how to analyse it, and how to enquire into what special difficulties might be encountered when using cyclical indicators. This survey focuses on our own research which we view as a formalization of some of the procedures developed by Burns and Mitchell at the NBER. However, defence of our position goes beyond continuity with the past and is based on the view that the way in which these investigators defined the business cycle is a very natural one that connects with the way policy makers and commentators discuss the cycle.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15

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Related research
Keywords: Business cycle growth cycle synchronization turning points.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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  1. Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Stylised facts from output gap measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  3. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  5. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  6. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Daniel M. Chin & John F. Geweke & Preston J. Miller, 2000. "Predicting turning points," Staff Report 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Alternative definitions of the business cycle and their implications for business cycle models: A reply to Torben Mark Pederson," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1103-1107, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Athanasopoulos, G. & Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2001. "Capturing the Shape of Business Cycles with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/2001, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1998. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  22. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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