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Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information

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  • Harding, Don
  • Pagan, Adrian

Abstract

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response also makes monitoring the business cycle of particular interest for Euro area policy makers. In this paper we summarize recent research on three questions relating to cycles in economic activity --- how to extract cyclical information, how to analyse it, and how to enquire into what special difficulties might be encountered when using cyclical indicators. This survey focuses on our own research which we view as a formalization of some of the procedures developed by Burns and Mitchell at the NBER. However, defence of our position goes beyond continuity with the past and is based on the view that the way in which these investigators defined the business cycle is a very natural one that connects with the way policy makers and commentators discuss the cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2001
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15

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Keywords: Business cycle; growth cycle; synchronization; turning points;

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  1. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, octubre-d.
  2. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
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  4. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
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  7. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
  8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Athanasopoulos, G. & Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2001. "Capturing the Shape of Business Cycles with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  11. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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  15. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  17. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Stylised facts from output gap measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  18. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Alternative definitions of the business cycle and their implications for business cycle models: A reply to Torben Mark Pederson," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1103-1107, August.
  19. Forni, Mario, et al, 2001. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C62-85, May.
  20. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
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