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Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy

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  • Paul W. Simpson
  • Denise R. Osborn
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time‐varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov‐switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. The Markov‐switching models capture the major recessions of the sample, but the use of leading indicators through the TVTP framework can improve this regime recognition. Finally, a forecast comparison shows that the TVTP models perform relatively well in predicting during the 1990s, particularly when nominal interest rates are used to generate the regime‐switching probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul W. Simpson & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(270), pages 243-267, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:243-267
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0335.00244
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    2. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2879-2888.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 177-193, April.
    6. Milan Christian Wet & Ilse Botha, 2022. "Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 37-67, March.
    7. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    8. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 232-246, August.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana, 2022. "Trends and cycles in macro series: The case of US real GDP," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 123-134, January.
    10. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    11. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Chai, Jian & Xing, Li-Min & Zhou, Xiao-Yang & Zhang, Zhe George & Li, Jie-Xun, 2018. "Forecasting the WTI crude oil price by a hybrid-refined method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 114-127.
    13. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

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