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Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

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Author Info
Marcelle Chauvet
Simon Potter

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Abstract

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time-invariant conditionally independent version, a business cycle specific conditionally independent model, a time-invariant probit with autocorrelated errors, and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. ; The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favor of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 134.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:134

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Keywords: Recessions ; Forecasting ; Economic indicators;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35. [Downloadable!]
  3. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle," Staff Reports 126, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Indicator Properties Of The Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons From Recent Experience," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 34-44, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  10. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51. [Downloadable!]
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
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  12. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. D R Osborn & M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 39, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Paper 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Vítor Castro, 2008. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," NIPE Working Papers 18/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  12. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Sep 2009. [Downloadable!]
  14. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Structural Break Threshold VARs for Predicting US Recessions using the Spread," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_37, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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