Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Citations for "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve"

by Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as in new window
  1. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  2. Vladimir Dubrovskiy & Inna Golodniuk & Janusz Szyrmer, 2009. "Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model," CASE Network Reports 0085, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010.
  4. D R Osborn & M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 39, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  6. Travis Berge, 2013. "Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0202, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  10. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
  11. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
  12. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
  13. Strauss, Jack, 2013. "Does housing drive state-level job growth? Building permits and consumer expectations forecast a state’s economic activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 77-93.
  14. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," Papers 1005.1326, arXiv.org.
  15. Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, February.
  16. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2014. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 138-148.
  17. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  18. Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
  19. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
  20. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  21. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  22. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
  24. Buchmann, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
  25. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
  26. Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society.
  27. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04.
  28. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
  29. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  30. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
  31. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  32. Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
  33. Candelon Bertrand & Ahmed Jameel & Straetmans Stefan, 2012. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  34. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
  35. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1291-1301.
  36. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Testing an autoregressive structure in binary time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1460-1473.
  37. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  38. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2002. "Predicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 245-253, October.
  39. repec:syb:wpbsba:05/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Ang, James & Smedema, Adam, 2011. "Financial flexibility: Do firms prepare for recession?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 774-787, June.
  41. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).