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Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe

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  • Karl Taylor
  • Robert McNabb

Abstract

This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical methodology used to investigate the properties of the data comprises cross-correlation statistics, implementing an approach developed by den Haan ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (2000) , Vol. 46, pp. 3-30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 185-208

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:69:y:2007:i:2:p:185-208

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Orlando Gomes, 2009. "On the stability of endogenous growth models: An evaluation of the agents' response to output fluctuations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-35, January.
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Business Confidence and Cyclical Turning Points: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics 07/19, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  3. Jaba Ghonghadze & Thomas Lux, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Kiel Working Papers 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
  5. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
  6. Thomas Lux, 2007. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Working Papers wp07-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  7. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," MPRA Paper 2883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2012. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a view to adopting the euro," Working Papers 12-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  9. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Andreas Tsiaklis, 2011. "An Analysis of Firms’ Expectations about Activity and Employment," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 5(1), pages 71-85, June.
  10. GORMUS Sakir & GUNES, Sevcan, 2010. "Consumer Confidence, Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
  11. Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
  12. Gaston Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2012. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Leverage in Monetary Financial Institutions: Comparing European countries and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 77, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  13. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.

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