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Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe

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Author Info
Karl Taylor
Robert McNabb

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Abstract

This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical methodology used to investigate the properties of the data comprises cross-correlation statistics, implementing an approach developed by den Haan ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (2000), Vol. 46, pp. 3-30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford 2007.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00472.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 185-208
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:69:y:2007:i:2:p:185-208

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? : identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Economics Working Papers 2008,07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Kiel Working Papers 1424, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "On the stability of endogenous growth models: an evaluation of the agents’ response to output fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2891, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Business Confidence and Cyclical Turning Points: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics 07/19, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," MPRA Paper 2883, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jaba Ghonghadze & Thomas Lux, 2009. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Kiel Working Papers 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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