den Haan ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (2000), Vol. 46, pp. 3-30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford 2007.">

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Karl Taylor
Robert McNabb

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical methodology used to investigate the properties of the data comprises cross-correlation statistics, implementing an approach developed by den Haan ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (2000), Vol. 46, pp. 3-30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford 2007.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00472.x
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 185-208
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:69:y:2007:i:2:p:185-208

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Andreou, Elena & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Comparison of the Statistical Properties of Financial Variables in the USA, UK and Germany over the Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 396-418, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1992. "Business Confidence and Depression Prevention: A Mesoeconomic Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 365-71, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. S Millard & A Scott & M Sensier, 1997. "The Labour Market over the Business Cycle: Can Theory Fit the Facts?," CEP Discussion Papers 0364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Other versions:
  9. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Fluctuations in confidence and asymmetric business cycles," Staff Reports 66, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Economics working papers 2008,07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thomas Lux, 2008. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Kiel Working Papers 1424, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "On the stability of endogenous growth models: an evaluation of the agents’ response to output fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2891, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Business Confidence and Cyclical Turning Points: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers in Economics 07/19, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Mortgages and Financial Expectations: A Household Level Analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," MPRA Paper 2883, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All RePEc services are meant to be be free forever, as they are all run by volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-29.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.