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Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data

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Author Info
James Mitchell (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
Richard J. Smith (University of Bristol and National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
Martin R. Weale (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

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Abstract

Survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. This paper proposes an indicator based on a theoretically consistent procedure for quantifying firm-level survey responses that are ordered and categorical. Firms" survey responses are assumed to be triggered by a latent continuous random variable as it crosses thresholds. Breaking tradition these thresholds are not assumed time invariant. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator of manufacturing output growth outperforms traditional indicators that assume time-invariant thresholds. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 478 (March)
Pages: C117-C135
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:478:p:c117-c135

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  1. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Smith, Richard J, 1989. "On the Use of Distributional Mis-specification Checks in Limited Dependent Variable Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 178-92, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Pesaran, M.H., 1992. "A Generalised R2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variable Method," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9220, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Chambers, Ray & Weale, Martin & Youll, Robin, 2000. "The Average Earnings Index," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F100-121, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale, 2007. "New proposals for the quantification of qualitative survey data," CEIS Research Paper 98, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ulf von Kalckreuth & Emma Murphy, . "Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: evidence from a large panel of survey data," Bank of England working papers 260, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  4. David Bywaters & Gareth Thomas, 2008. "Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 125-137, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bruno Giancarlo & Lupi Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," ISAE Working Papers 33, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  6. Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Georg Weizsäcker, 2004. "Stated Beliefs and Play in Normal Form Games," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000236, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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