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Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data

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Author Info

  • James Mitchell

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

  • Richard J. Smith

    (University of Bristol and National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

  • Martin R. Weale

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

Abstract

Survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. This paper proposes an indicator based on a theoretically consistent procedure for quantifying firm-level survey responses that are ordered and categorical. Firms" survey responses are assumed to be triggered by a latent continuous random variable as it crosses thresholds. Breaking tradition these thresholds are not assumed time invariant. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator of manufacturing output growth outperforms traditional indicators that assume time-invariant thresholds. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 478 (March)
Pages: C117-C135

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:478:p:c117-c135

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References

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  1. Chambers, Ray & Weale, Martin & Youll, Robin, 2000. "The Average Earnings Index," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F100-121, February.
  2. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
  3. Pesaran, M.H., 1992. "A Generalised R2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variable Method," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9220, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  5. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September.
  6. Smith, Richard J, 1989. "On the Use of Distributional Mis-specification Checks in Limited Dependent Variable Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 178-92, Supplemen.
  7. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  8. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David Bywaters & Gareth Thomas, 2008. "Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 125-137, June.
  2. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
  3. Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/3, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  4. Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise?," NIESR Discussion Papers 1960, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  5. Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
  6. Tommaso Proietti & Cecilia Frale, 2007. "New proposals for the quantification of qualitative survey data," CEIS Research Paper 98, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  7. Minkler, Lanse, 2004. "Shirking and motivations in firms: survey evidence on worker attitudes," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 863-884, June.
  8. Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Georg Weizsäcker, 2004. "Stated Beliefs and Play in Normal Form Games," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000236, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Murphy, Emma, 2005. "Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: Evidence from a large panel of survey data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80 Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2011. "Quantifying survey expectations: What's wrong with the probability approach?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-485, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  12. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  13. Bruno, Giancarlo & Lupi, Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," MPRA Paper 42332, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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