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Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness

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  • Lyziak, Tomasz

Abstract

This paper presents numerical measures of European consumers’ inflation expectations derived on the basis of European Commission qualitative survey data with different quantification methods, i.e. with the probability method, the regression method and the logistic (and linear) function method. The study aims at assessing differences between those measures and the resulting uncertainty in measuring inflation expectations of this group of economic agents. Moreover, in the empirical part of the paper the formation of expectations by consumers in European economies is examined, with a particular focus on estimating the degree of forward-lookingness of expectations.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18890.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18890

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Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Consumers; Survey; EU;

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  1. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
  2. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 353-369, October.
  3. Paolo Del Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2004. "LÂ’introduzione dellÂ’euro e la divergenza tra infl azione rilevata e percepita," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 532, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
  5. Stix, Helmut & Fluch, Manfred, 2005. "Perceived Inflation in Austria – Extent, Explanations, Effects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22–47.
  6. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  7. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 315-325, September.
  8. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
  10. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
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