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Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: evidence from a large panel of survey data

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Ulf von Kalckreuth
Emma Murphy

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Abstract

The interrelationship between financial constraints and firm activity is a hotly debated issue. The way firms cope with financial constraints is fundamental to the analysis of monetary transmission, of financial stability and of economic growth and development. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey contains detailed information on the financial constraints faced by a large sample of UK manufacturers. This paper uses the quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey firm-level data between January 1989 and October 1999. The cleaned sample contains 49,244 quarterly observations on 5,196 firms. The data set is presented and a new method of checking the informational content of the data is developed. The relationship between investment activity and financial constraints is ambivalent because both can affect each other and they are affected by the same kind of economic developments, so it is not clear which is driving the other. But the link between financial constraints faced by the firm and the prevalence and duration of capacity restrictions should be unambiguously positive. Looking at that relationship, two important results emerge. First, financially constrained firms take longer to close capacity gaps. This indicates that financial constraints do indeed play a part in the investment process. Second, small firms close their capacity gaps faster than large firms do, but financial constraints seem to be of higher relevance to their adjustment.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 260.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:260

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  1. J. B. Chatelain & Andrea Generale & I. Hernando & U. von Kalckreuth & P. Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 431, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bronwyn Hall, 2002. "The Financing of Research and Development," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1004, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities are not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 7659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "On the German Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Interest Rate and Credit Channels for Investment Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002. "Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C117-C135, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Capacity constraints, price adjustment, and monetary policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Spring), pages 39-56. [Downloadable!]
  7. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Jorg Breitung & Robert S Chirinko, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 213, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2004. "Credit Chains," ESE Discussion Papers 118, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  9. Aghion, Philippe & Bolton, Patrick, 1992. "An Incomplete Contracts Approach to Financial Contracting," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(3), pages 473-94, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2003. "New Findings on Firm Investment and Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 73-83.
  12. Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kaplan, Steven N & Zingales, Luigi, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215, February.
  14. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Demsetz, Harold, 1969. "Information and Efficiency: Another Viewpoint," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, April.
  16. George J. Stigler, 1967. "Imperfections in the Capital Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 287. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S., 2002. "Further Evidence On The Relationship Between Firm Investment And Financial Status," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  20. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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