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A Note on the Carlson-Parkin Method of Quantifying Qualitative Data Evidence Based on a New Data Set

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Abstract

Qualitative surveys enjoy huge popularity among business cycle analysts and research institutes since they provide fast information on the stance of the economy. However, in order to derive quantitative statements researchers have to rely on assumptions about the relation between quantitative and qualitative information. This paper introduces a micro data set that combines individ- ual quantitative and qualitative information and presents first tests of com- mon assumptions. It suggests a modifcation of the Carlson and Parkin (1975) method and a solution to the zero response problem.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 07-168.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision: May 2007
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-168

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Keywords: rational expectations; quantification; survey data;

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  1. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "An Alternative to the Carlson-Parkin Method for the Quantification of Qualitative Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Papers No. 9, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
  3. Ivaldi, Marc, 1992. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 225-41, July-Sept.
  4. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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