Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ullrich, Katrin

Abstract

The communication policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) attracts a lot of attention from financial markets. This paper analyses the informational content of the monthly introductory statements of the ECB president explaining interest rate decisions with regard to inflation expectations of financial market experts for the euro area from February 1999 to July 2006. Tests were conducted for the influence of ECB communication on expectations formation besides other macroeconomic variables. As the results indicate, the indicator measuring the informational content of ECB rhetoric contributes to the explanation of inflation expectations formation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W5T-4S5760N-1/1/dda75a1d9cfaf054c2c8835fe12f49a4
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 93-108

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:93-108

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Jorge Sicilia, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Papers 47, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  2. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 2004. "Expectations and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-41.
  6. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
  8. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-73, May.
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Manfred Neumann, 2002. "Transparency in monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 353-365, December.
  11. Smith, Jeremy & McAleer, Michael, 1995. "Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 165-85, April-Jun.
  12. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andrés, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Working Paper Series 0080, European Central Bank.
  14. Kevin L. Kliesen & Frank A. Schmid, 2004. "Monetary policy actions, macroeconomic data releases, and inflation expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 9-22.
  15. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Mitchell, James, 2002. "The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 101-107, June.
  17. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
  18. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, 03.
  19. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Enrico Marchetti, 2002. "Central banks and information provided to the private sector," Working Papers 61, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  21. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  22. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  23. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Were Verbal Efforts to Support the Euro Effective? A High-Frequency Analysis of ECB Statements," DNB Working Papers 033, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  24. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  25. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2006. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 175-195, April.
  26. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2003. "Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 927, CESifo Group Munich.
  27. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  29. Lee, Jim, 1999. "Alternative P* Models of Inflation Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 312-25, April.
  30. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  31. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2), pages 1-66.
  32. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
  33. Laidler, David E W & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 741-809, December.
  34. Rachel Lomax, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models, Forecasts, and Hunches," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 251-265, September.
  35. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  36. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 0488, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2009. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," KOF Working papers 09-236, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Thomas Mayer & Holger Schmieding & Manfred Jäger-Ambrozewicz & Michael Lamla & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ulrich Kater & Leon Leschus & Wolfgang Brachinger, 2011. "Zinserhöhung der EZB: Wie groß ist die Inflationsgefahr?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(14), pages 03-26, 07.
  3. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Bluhm, Marcel, 2011. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:93-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.