This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

European inflation expectations dynamics

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Slacalek, Jirka
Fritsche, Ulrich
Dovern, Jonas
Döpke, Jörg

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). As opposed to the benchmark rational expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than instantaneously owing to the costs of acquiring and processing information. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Using survey data on households? and experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. Both parametrizations imply comparable speeds of information updating for the European households as was previously found in the US, on average roughly once a year. --

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19622/1/200537dkp.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2005,37.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4231

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Email:
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (ZBW - German National Library for Economics).

Related research
Keywords: Inflation; expectations; sticky information; inflation persistence;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu, 2002. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Working Papers 02-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Koetter, Michael & Karmann, Alexander & Fiorentino, Elisabetta, 2006. "The cost efficiency of German banks : a comparison of SFA and DEA," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fisch, Jan Hendrik, 2006. "Internalization and internationalization under copeting real options," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Liebig, Thilo & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Incorporating prediction and estimation risk in point-in-time credit portfolio models," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jonas Dovern & Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200604, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Hakenes, Hendrik & Fecht, Falko, 2006. "Money market derivatives and the allocation of liquidity risk in the banking sector," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jäckle, Robert, 2006. "Going multinational: What are the effects on home market performance?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the export pricing behaviour of German enterprises changed? : Empirical evidence from German sectoral prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bohl, Martin & Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Real-time forecasting and political stock market anomalies: evidence for the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,22, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. von Westernhagen, Natalja & Porath, Daniel & Hayden, Evelyn, 2006. "Does diversification improve the performance of German banks? : Evidence from individual bank loan portfolios," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Grüner, Hans Peter & Fecht, Falko, 2006. "Limits to international banking consolidation," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Kool, Clemens J.M. & Raabe, Katharina, 2006. "Industries and the bank lending effects of bank credit demand and monetary policy in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,48, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  17. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2006. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Koetter, Michael, 2005. "Evaluating the German bank merger wave," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Trade balances of the central and east European EU member states and the role of foreign direct investment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  20. Frey, Rainer & Hussinger, Katrin, 2006. "The role of technology in M&As: a firm-level comparison of cross-border and domestic deals," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,45, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Álvarez, Luís & Dhyne, Emmanuel & Hoeberichts, Marco & Kwapil, Claudia & Le Bihan, Hervé & Lünnemann, Patrick & Martins, Fernando & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Vermeulen, Philip & Vilmune, 2006. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Knetsch, Thomas A., 2005. "Short-run and long-run comovement of GDP and some expenditure aggregates in Germany, France and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,39, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  23. Hoffmann, Johannes & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2006. "Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.