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The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

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Author Info
Joerg Doepke (University of Applied Sciences, Merseburg)
Jonas Dovern (IfW Kiel)
Ulrich Fritsche (University Hamburg and DIW Berlin)
Jiri Slacalek (European Central Bank)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We investigate the relevance of Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). In contrast to the most rational expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations occasionally rather than instantaneously due to the costs of acquiring and processing information. Using survey data on household and expert inflation expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two alternative parametrizations of the sticky information model which differ in the stationarity assumptions about the underlying series. Our baseline stationary estimation suggests that the average frequency of information updating for European households is roughly once in 18 months. The vector error-correction model implies households update information about once a year.

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File URL: http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1540&context=bejm
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:12

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Related research
Keywords: inflation expectations; sticky information; inflation persistence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2111, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees - different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu, 2002. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Working Papers 02-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions – Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," KOF Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lena Vogel, 2008. "The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200803, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2008. "A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations," MPRA Paper 8663, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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