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Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data

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  • MURASAWA Yasutomo

Abstract

To quantify qualitative survey data, the Carlson-Parkin method assumes normality, a time-invariant symmetric indifference interval, and long-run unbiased expectations. Interval-coded data do not require these assumptions. Since April 2004, the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey in Japan asks households their price expectations a year ahead in seven categories with partially known boundaries; thus one can identify up to six parameters including an indifference interval each month. This paper compares normal, skew normal, and skew t distributions, and finds that the skew t distribution fits the best throughout the period studied. The results help to understand the dynamics of heterogeneous expectations.

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  • MURASAWA Yasutomo, 2010. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," ESRI Discussion paper series 236, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:236
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    Cited by:

    1. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2017. "Measuring the Distributions of Public Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the UK," MPRA Paper 76244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nikola Mirkov & Andreas Steinhauer, 2014. "Are subjective distributions in inflation expectations symmetric?," ECON - Working Papers 173, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    3. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Cacchiarelli, Luca & Carbone, Anna & Esti, Marco & Laureti, Tiziana & Sorrentino, Alessandro, 2015. "Assessing the Value of Quality in the Italian Wine Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211379, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2020. "Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 315-344, July.
    6. Cacchiarelli, Luca & Carbone, Anna & Esti, Marco & Laureti, Tiziana & Sorrentino, Alessandro, 2015. "Wine quality and prices: experts vs market," 143rd Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, March 25-27, 2015, Naples, Italy 202750, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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