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The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professionals

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of media coverage and macroeconomic con- ditions on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of infla- tion affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the content of news stories (tone) but is unaffected by reporting intensity (volume) and by the heterogeneity of story content (information entropy). Disagreement of pro- fessionals does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables we provide evidence that disagreement of households and professionals primarily depends on the current rate of inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-223.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-223

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Keywords: forecast disagreement; inflation expectations; media coverage; Bayesian learning;

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References

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  8. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000.
  9. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, 03.
  10. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
  11. Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Working Papers 103, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christina Leung, 2009. "The demographics of household inflation perceptions and expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 34-42, June.
  2. Ehrmann, Michael & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Badarinza, Cristian & Gross, Marco, 2012. "Information flows and disagreement," Working Paper Series 1475, European Central Bank.
  4. Paul Hubert, 2013. "FOMC forecasts as a focal point for private expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Thomas Mayer & Holger Schmieding & Manfred Jäger-Ambrozewicz & Michael Lamla & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ulrich Kater & Leon Leschus & Wolfgang Brachinger, 2011. "Zinserhöhung der EZB: Wie groß ist die Inflationsgefahr?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(14), pages 03-26, 07.

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