IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kof/wpskof/08-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Formation of Inflation Perceptions - Some Empirical Facts for European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah M. Lein
  • Thomas Maag

Abstract

This paper investigates how households form their perceptions of consumer price inflation. Using data from the harmonized EU consumer survey, we find that inflation perceptions are inefficient and highly heterogeneous, yet contemporaneously related to the actual rate of inflation. Consequently, we estimate how often households update their beliefs employing Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model. Our results indicate that inflation perceptions are generally less responsive to new information than expectations. Unlike studies on expectations, we cannot confirm that a constant fraction of the population updates information every month. Also, the cross-sectional heterogeneity of perceptions is higher than implied by infrequent updating alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions - Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," KOF Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-204
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005666792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005666792
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3929/ethz-a-005666792?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    2. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Jonung, Lars & Laidler, David E, 1988. "Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational? Some Evidence for Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1080-1087, December.
    4. Michael Ehrmann, 2011. "Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 33-58, February.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    7. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
    8. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
    14. Wioletta Dziuda & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2009. "The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency and Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 101-129, February.
    15. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "Survey measures of expected inflation : revisiting the issues of predictive content and rationality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 17-36.
    16. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 353-369, October.
    17. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    18. Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 588, European Central Bank.
    19. Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M., 2014. "The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 62-77.
    20. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    21. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
    22. Doepke Joerg & Dovern Jonas & Fritsche Ulrich & Slacalek Jiri, 2008. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, March.
    23. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
    24. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    25. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    26. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    27. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
    28. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
    29. Manfred Fluch & Helmut Stix, 2007. "The Development of Euro Prices – Subjective Perception and Empirical Facts," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 55-84.
    30. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
    31. Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    32. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    33. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    34. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    35. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-331, August.
    36. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
    37. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    38. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    39. Mitchell, James, 2002. "The use of non-normal distributions in quantifying qualitative survey data on expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 101-107, June.
    40. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2006. "Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany," DQE Working Papers 5, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    41. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger, 2015. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 681-700, October.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram, 2011. "Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 298-319.
    3. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. Ewa Stanisławska, 2019. "Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary Environment," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 41-71, April.
    6. Yusuke Takahashi & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2022. "Households' Perceived Inflation and CPI Inflation: the Case of Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    7. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    8. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "(Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions," MPRA Paper 77082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    10. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    11. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    13. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Young Bin Ahn & Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2022. "Consumer’s perceived and expected inflation in Japan—irrationality or asymmetric loss?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1247-1292, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    2. Ewa Stanisławska, 2019. "Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary Environment," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 41-71, April.
    3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    4. Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    6. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    7. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
    8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    10. Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M., 2014. "The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 62-77.
    11. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "(Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions," MPRA Paper 77082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jan Babecký & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(2), pages 102-127, June.
    14. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Mathilde Aubry & Jean Bonnet & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle: the “Schumpeter” effect versus the “refugee” effect—a French appraisal based on regional data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 23-55, January.
    16. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
    17. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
    18. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    20. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perceived inflation; Sticky information; Inattention; Expectation formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/koethch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.