Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area
AbstractThere has been a growing interest on inflation perceptions in the euro area, in particular, following the euro cash changeover. It has been pointed out that a gap emerged between observed and perceived inflation since the introduction of the euro notes and coins. Such a statement relies on the fact that inflation perceptions, measured by the well-known balance statistic from the European Commission's consumer survey, hiked after January 2002 and remained high thereafter, as opposed to the observed inflation, which has remained fairly stable. In this paper, we discuss the issue of inflation perceptions measurement, by comparing the balance statistic with an alternative refined measure, which is computed using the probability method. We argue that the balance statistic should be used carefully, as it can induce to misleading conclusions. In fact, we provide, for both euro area and country level, evidence showing that, using the proposed alternative measure, the breakdown in the relationship between observed and perceived inflation did not occur at the time of the euro cash changeover.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200715.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989.
"Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles,"
RCER Working Papers
205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
- Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
- Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tanbalotti & Federico Ravenna, 2005.
"Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro,"
2005 Meeting Papers
659, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(3), pages 1103-1131, 08.
- Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2004. "Menu costs at work: restaurant prices and the introduction of the euro," Staff Reports 195, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Paolo Angelini & Francesco Lippi, 2007. "Did Prices Really Soar after the Euro Cash Changeover? Evidence from ATM Withdrawals," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, December.
- Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
- Andrews, Donald W.K. & Kim, Jae-Young, 2006. "Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 379-394, October.
- Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
- Tomasz Lyziak, 2010.
"Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness,"
IFC Bulletins chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 155-201
Bank for International Settlements.
- Lyziak, Tomasz, 2009. "Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness," MPRA Paper 18890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010.
"Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 591-607, September.
- Francisco Craveiro Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2008. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: Are consumers rational?," Working Papers w200823, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008.
"The Formation of Inflation Perceptions – Some Empirical Facts for European Countries,"
KOF Working papers
08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, 05.
- Lyziak, Tomasz, 2011.
"Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland,"
28900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tomasz Łyziak, 2013. "Non-Positive Scaling Factor in Probability Quantification Methods: Deriving Consumer Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Whole Euro Area and Ireland," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 77-98, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (DEE-NTDD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.